The Next Recession Has Started – And India Is Not Ready | Economic Case study
A Think School economic case study, recorded in March 2025, in which the presenter asks whether the United States is heading into a recession and what that would mean for India. He cites a roughly 4 trillion dollar fall in US stock market value over 20 days, explains technical versus real recession, and uses a story of a bond to explain the yield curve and why he says an inverted curve has preceded recessions. He then describes the effect of Trump's tariffs on US consumers and companies and the effect he expects on Indian IT, pharma, textiles and foreign investment, and ends with precautions he suggests. Sponsor: the video is presented as brought to you by Think School's own Communication Masterclass course, promoted mid-video. PARTIAL COVERAGE: this note is based on the opening, the sponsor segment, the recession definitions, the yield curve explanation, the tariff section, the India impact section and the closing, and may not cover every point in the roughly 21 minute video. The figures, forecasts and political views are the presenter's own, were current only at the time of recording, and are not independently checked. Nothing here is financial or investment advice.
Executive Summary (TL;DR)
A Think School economic case study, recorded in March 2025, in which the presenter asks whether the United States is heading into a recession and what that would mean for India. He cites a roughly 4 trillion dollar fall in US stock market value over 20 days, explains technical versus real recession, and uses a story of a bond to explain the yield curve and why he says an inverted curve has preceded recessions. He then describes the effect of Trump's tariffs on US consumers and companies and the effect he expects on Indian IT, pharma, textiles and foreign investment, and ends with precautions he suggests. Sponsor: the video is presented as brought to you by Think School's own Communication Masterclass course, promoted mid-video. PARTIAL COVERAGE: this note is based on the opening, the sponsor segment, the recession definitions, the yield curve explanation, the tariff section, the India impact section and the closing, and may not cover every point in the roughly 21 minute video. The figures, forecasts and political views are the presenter's own, were current only at the time of recording, and are not independently checked. Nothing here is financial or investment advice.